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UNC Stat of the Day:


Who is the best in the ACC?  
The next big award to be announced is ACC Player of the Year. The two front runners are Jared Dudley of BC and our man Hansbrough. Al Thornton and Sean Singletary are also in contention, but the best they'll do is 3rd and 4th.

If you listen to reporters and TV commentators, Dudley has had a slight edge in the last couple of months. However, Hansbrough has been playing very well lately, not to mention the legendary performance against Duke which may have pushed him over the edge for the top spot.

If I look at the stats, Dudley has a slight edge:
SCORING
## Player-Team               Cl  G   FG  3FG   FT  Pts Avg/G
------------------------------------------------------------
 1.Al Thornton-FS........... SR 30  210   30  152  602  20.1
 2.Jared Dudley-BC.......... SR 26  168   36  129  501  19.3
 3.Tyler Hansbrough-NC...... SO 31  193    1  197  584  18.8
REBOUNDING
## Player-Team               Cl  G  OFF  DEF  TOT Avg/G
-------------------------------------------------------
 1.Jared Dudley-BC.......... SR 26   79  143  222   8.5
 2.Tyler Hansbrough-NC...... SO 31   98  149  247   8.0
FIELD GOAL PCT (Min. 5.0 made per game)
## Player-Team               Cl  G    FG   FGA   Pct
----------------------------------------------------
 1.Brandan Wright-NC........ FR 30   186   282  .660
 2.Ben McCauley-ST.......... SO 29   177   300  .590
 3.Jared Dudley-BC.......... SR 26   168   290  .579
 4.Kyle Visser-WF........... SR 29   175   304  .576
 5.Tyler Hansbrough-NC...... SO 31   193   362  .533
However, if we look at one more stat, it will shed light on Dudley's advantage:
MINUTES PLAYED
## Player-Team               Cl  G Minutes  Avg/G
-------------------------------------------------
 1.Jared Dudley-BC.......... SR 26     996  38.31
That's right, Dudley led the ACC in minutes played. Hansbrough is not even in the top 10. If Hansbrough played as many minutes as Dudley, he would have easily beat him statistically. And this is exactly Chip Alexander's point from the N&O when he assessed who was best.
The News & Observer developed an efficiency rating based on a formula used by the NBA. The NBA version takes a player's good statistics, subtracts bad ones and divides by total games. The only difference is the N&O's rating is figured by dividing by total minutes rather than total games.

Hansbrough's 67.03 efficiency rating is the highest of the four candidates. Thornton is next (64.03) and Dudley third (62.01). You have to take into account minutes played or you are not comparing apples to apples.

You also have to consider other factors than just the efficiency rating because if you just went by efficiency, Brandan Wright would be the POY since he has the highest rating in the league, even ahead of Hansbrough. He isn't quite POY caliber yet (although he would be next year if he stayed, which he won't), he's a lock for Freshman of the Year.

You also have to consider head to head play. While Dudley scored more points (22) than Hansbrough (17) in the UNC v BC match-up, Dudley missed vital free throws and shots at the end of the game.

My money is on Hansbrough, but then again I'm biased ;-)
Posted by Robbie Allen @ 3/05/2007 11:31:00 PM
Comments:
Doyel really hammers K:

http://www.sportsline.com/columns/story/10042792
# posted by Anonymous Anonymous : 1:21 PM
 
efficiency rating is great but really all you have to look at are PointsPerMin and ReboundsPerMin:

Dudley: .5031 and .223
Tyler: .6836 and .270

Tyler Wins!
# posted by Anonymous Ike Starnes : 6:09 PM
 
J. Dudley (90.2) is by far the overall best player in the ACC followed by J. McRoberts (82.3), B. Costner (70.8), and A. Thornton (70.0). Hansbrough (65.8) and Wright (59.77) come in a distant fifth and sixth respectively. (Wright does not have the highest league rating and his rating is worse than Hansbrough's.)

Dudley has had a big edge all season. There is no slight edge that Hansbrough's one good game against Duke overcomes. Home court advantage shows, considering head-to-head play; in their first meeting McRoberts had an RBSA-TO rating of 12 vs Hansbrough at 4 and Wright at 4; in both Duke games its McNasty 19, Psycho T 20, and Wright 15.

Looking at all of the stats, not just selective shooting and rebounding numbers, is telling. McRobets/Hansbrough have equivalent rebounds (242/247); then the dynamic changes significantly in McRoberts favor: blocks 77/14; assists 108/35; steals 37/35; avg game time 38.3/29.5! WOW!

McRobert's 31 game RBSA-TO (390) greatly surpasses all others. Dudley's overall RBSA-TO numbers are slightly lower than Hansbrough's (267/272), but then he played in only 26 games vs Hansbrough's 31 games. Wright is 258.

The player ratings above (e.g. Dudley 90.2) consider scoring, RBSA-TO, games played, and player availability.

Not withstanding the Blue N&O's reverse logic, it is reasonable to infer that a player's efficiency drops the longer he plays in a game (that's why Ol'Roy uses his platoon system). What Div I coach in the country would give a scholarship to a prospect that says he only wants to play 70% of the time? Availability time: Dudley (95.8), McRoberts (87.8); Costner (85.0), Thornton (79.0), Hansbrough (73.8), Wright (67.2).

It is reasonable to conclude that Hansbrough's and Wright's ratings would have been even lower if they had greater playing time availability.
# posted by Anonymous Anonymous : 7:38 PM
 
I'm having a hard time deciding if you attended Duke or BC, either of which would explain your faulty Math and Logic skills.

Using the per minute stats levels the playing field. It makes no difference how long each player plays if you look at per minute stats.

Hansbrough and McRoberts are most certainly not equivalent when it comes to rebounds. McRoberts played 175 more minutes than Hansbrough and yet Hansbrough had 5 more rebounds! That's the equivalent of McRoberts playing 4.375 games more than Hansbrough and yet they had close to the same total rebounds.

Go back to the drawing board because you aren't even close.
# posted by Blogger Robbie Allen : 10:34 AM
 
RE: "I'm having a hard time deciding if you attended Duke or BC..." Neither ....

Commentor graduated Magna Cum Laude from an SEC university although I have lived in NC and followed the ACC closely for the last 35 years.

The math is pretty darn accurate. Although not presented in the original Comment, the formula picks Costner (70.8), Crittenton (64.55) and Wright (59.8) as the top three rookies. Scheyer (64.92) is actually in a virtual tie with Crtiitenton.

Re Psycho T vs McRoberts stats. One element (e.g. rebounds) is insignificant - total player contribution is the key. Applying your theory to blocked shots, Psyco T (avg .45 blks/game)would have had to play another 140 games to increase his blocked shots from 14 to match McRoberts 77. For assists, avg 1.13/game, he would have had to play another 64 games to increase his assists from 35 to match McRoberts 108.

Note: NBA Scouts rank McRoberts #2 and Hansbrough #5.

Didn't the little N&O formula rank Dudley 3rd or 4th? It might be worthwhile to discuss their twisted efficiency formula and its inverted logic with a friendly math professor.
# posted by Anonymous Anonymous : 11:34 AM
 
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