Tyler will break the ACC Scoring Record
We all know Tyler Hansbrough broke the UNC scoring record last night. Huge accomplishment for sure. An even bigger accomplishment would be to set the scoring record among all ACC players. Duke's much maligned JJ Redick currently holds the record with 2,796 points. Tyler currently has 2,302 points. So instead of waffling like the TV commentators have been doing about this record, I'll go out on a limb (not a very long limb) and say Tyler WILL BREAK THE ACC SCORING RECORD. As of now, he needs 494 points.
Why am I so confident? The numbers speak for themselves. UNC has 20 regular season games left to play. With the ACC Tournament and NCAA Tournament, UNC could play another 9 games for a total of 29 remaining games. Here is what Tyler needs to average to break the record.
Worst case scenario is UNC loses the first round of both ACC Tourney and NCAA Tourney. That means UNC plays 22 more games, so Tyler would need to average 22.45 points per game from here on out.
Best case scenario is UNC gets to the ACC Tourney Championship and NCAA Tourney Championship. That means UNC plays 29 more games and Tyler needs to average 17.0 points per game.
Conservative case (actually this would be a disaster) is UNC plays 2 games in the ACC Tourney (ie, loses 2nd round) and 3 games in the NCAA Tourney (loses in the Sweet 16). That's 25 remaining games and Tyler would need to average 19.76 points.
Likely case is UNC plays 3 games in the ACC Tourney (makes the final) and at least 5 games in the NCAA Tourney (makes it to the Final Four like last year). That's 28 games and Tyler would need 17.6 PPG.
If Tyler maintains the same scoring average he had last year (22.6 PPG), he'll break the record regardless of the scenario. If the "likely" scenario happens, Tyler could score below his Freshman and Sophomore levels and still break the record.
Of course, this assume Tyler plays all remaining games. The big unknown in all of this is if Tyler has to sit due to injury. If that happens, all bets are off.
