Tyler will break the ACC Scoring Record
Back on
Dec 19th, I made the not so bold prediction that barring injury, Tyler Hansbrough will break the ACC scoring record held by Duke's JJ Redick. This isn't a bold prediction because it is simple math really. Let's see where things stand today.
UNC has
11 games remaining in the regular season (including
tonight's game against FSU) . Tyler is averaging a career best, 22.7 points per game so far this season. His current point total stands at 2,509 while JJ Redick's is 2,769. That's a difference of 260.
If Tyler averages his current PPG for the remainder of the regular season, he'll enter post season play 10 points behind Redick. If UNC had the most disappointing season in recent history, they'd play at least 5 games in the post-season: losing in the semi-finals of the ACC tourney and losing in the sweet 16 of the NCAA tourney. So Tyler would need to get 10 points in 5 games.
But let's say Tyler doesn't maintain his current average and dips to a career low 18.3 points per game. 16 games x 18.3 points would give him another 292 points well above the 260 he needs. And you can see compared to last year, Tyler actually averaged more points per game in Feb and March:
So it is pretty clear that barring injury or some other catastrophe, Tyler will become the all-time ACC scoring leader. And if you
compare Tyler and JJ (using the recently updated Player Comparison feature on StatSheet), you can see he did it averaging significantly fewer minutes per game than JJ. During JJ's senior season, he averaged a career high 37 minutes per game while Tyler is currently averaging a career LOW in minutes per game (28.8). Sure, Tyler's MPG will undoubtedly rise over the next two months, but it will never be close to what JJ averaged.
